Silver Gold Prices

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Is now the time to invest in silver? (EFT Long Bull 2x)?

I am a coin collector, have been for 15 years, and I see a correlation between silver/gold coins, and Silver/gold prices. I strongly believe that the price of Silver will gain strongly, and the price of gold will decline. I feel like gold has been over marketed, but silver I predict will be $60 per oz in the next 10 years.

I am interested in doing an EFT 2x Long Bull, AGQ. Has anyone ever invested in this before, or can give me more info on AGQ or EFT's in general?

It makes sense to me that with hyperinflation on the horizon that the value of silver will rise. The only thing that throws me for a loop is the decline of the value of silver during the onset of the 2008 recession. Any advise will be greatly appreciated.

Thank You Kindly,
Jason

First off, they are ETF's not EFT's.

Second off, if silver went to $60 in 10 years that would be a 7% return. Not enough to get me very excited and significantly below the expected return of equities.

Third off, if you have a belief about long term silver, you do not invest in a synthetic leveraged ETF. The rebalancing on these will kill you if we have directionless volatility so they should only be used for short-term bets.

Fourth off, nobody who really knows anything thinks we will have hyperinflation anytime soon. There is just nothing going on in the US that resembles any previous hyperinflation except printing money and we are nowhere close to the amount that would trigger hyperinflation. Deflation is much more likely. The thing that throws you for a loop is that in deflations or recessions, silver will absolutely drop in value. A good recession and we could see $12 silver again. I really suggest that you go read up on hyperinflation and try to answer questions like what are the common elements of hyperinflation. If nothing else, you will know more history than all of the silver bugs on YA.

There is nothing wrong with investing in SLV (except I don't think silver is going anywhere anytime soon). Contrary to idiocy you see on YA, SLV holds physical silver backing up all shares of the ETF (I've actually read the prospectus, boring as that was).

If I wanted to make a bet on short-term silver, I would absolutely use futures contracts which are clean, cheap, tax-friendly bets without rebalancing issues like a 2x ETF.

Edit: BTW - the only trade in precious metals that would interest me is the opposite of the gold-silver trade you want to do. Silver is junk compared to gold and there are lots of people out there who have been buying silver because they can't afford gold. How hard is it to flush them out of the market? A thrashing in precious metals would hurt silver more than gold...

Edit: And you can believe jpvskv who really knows nothing about investing or the Ph.D./CFA/many year hedge fund guy. The problem with YA is that idiots post here.

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